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A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."

Call for Wider Debate

Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."